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Forecast

electricity vs. gas price - per kWh

The energy price ratio is the ratio between the price of electricity (i.e. the auxiliary energy used by most heat pumps) and the price of 1 kWh of useful heating energy delivered by the competing technologies - in this case natural gas. It is based on the use cost of energy (excluding annual fees, meter readings etc.) and includes efficiency losses of the fossil fuel boiler. The energy price ratio shows the operating cost of heating systems using different types of fuel vs. the cost of electricity: a heat pump system has a comparative operating cost advantage over competing technologies whenever the seasonal performance factor (SPF) in the location of application is higher than the energy price ratio. The larger the difference between SPF and energy price ratio, the bigger the advantage. Source: Eurostat, nrg_pc_204.

GDP

The development of the gross domestic product is the broadest indicator for expected market growth. Source: Eurostat, nama_10_gdp.

Construction

Activities in the construction sector are linked closely to the market of heating appliances. However, this metric depicts the new builidings market rather than the bigger renovation sector. Source: Eurostat, naida_10_a10.

Households investment rate

The gross investment rate of households is defined as gross fixed capital formation (ESA 2010 code: P51g) divided by gross disposable income (B6g), with the latter being adjusted for the change in the net equity of households in pension funds reserves (D8net). Household investment mainly consists of the purchase and renovation of dwellings. Indicator described is calculated on the basis of quarterly sector accounts data by institutional sectors. Household sector comprises all households, household firms and Non Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH) (ESA 2010 codes S14 and S15). Sector accounts are compiled in accordance with European System of Accounts (ESA 2010). Data are expressed in percentage, in non-seasonal adjusted as well as in seasonal and calendar adjusted form.
Source: Eurostat, nasq_10_ki.